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Timing of antiviral treatment initiation is critical to reduce SARS-Cov-2 viral load
13 auth. António Gonçalves, J. Bertrand, R. Ke, E. Comets, X. D. de Lamballerie, D. Malvy, A. Pizzorno, O. Terrier, Manuel Rosa Calatrava, F. Mentré, ... Patrick F. Smith, A. Perelson, J. Guedj
We modeled the viral dynamics of 13 untreated patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 to infer viral growth parameters and predict the effects of antiviral treatments. In order to reduce peak viral load by more than 2 logs, drug efficacy needs to be great…
We modeled the viral dynamics of 13 untreated patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 to infer viral growth parameters and predict the effects of antiviral treatments. In order to reduce peak viral load by more than 2 logs, drug efficacy needs to be greater than 80% if treatment is administered after symptom onset; an efficacy of 50% could be sufficient if treatment is initiated before symptom onset. Given their pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic properties, current investigated drugs may be in a range of 20-70% efficacy. They may help control virus if administered very early, but may not have a major effect in severe patients.
Published in medRxiv
30
7 2020